Can Data Help Pick The Next Major Winner?

There’s something about Quail Hollow. The way the course stretches out beneath a Carolina sky. The long shadows that fall across the 16th fairway as the day winds down. The breeze that toys with your club selection just enough to make things interesting. And the silence that lingers after a tee shot while everyone waits to see where it lands.

It’s a place where patterns have a habit of returning. And as the PGA Championship heads back to Charlotte this year, there’s one name that feels almost inevitable: Rory McIlroy. But before we start engraving trophies, let’s take a different approach.

Can data help us figure out who’s next and understand, through the numbers, who might be primed for a major moment?

That’s the fun of it. Major Championships tend to reveal everything. The stakes are high, the pressure is real, and there’s no hiding. You either have it that week or you don’t. But now, in an era of shot-by-shot tracking and strokes gained analysis, we can do more than just follow instincts. We can read the signals before they fully form.

And those signals, when it comes to Quail Hollow, point in one very specific direction: off the tee.

This course leans into players who can start strong from the box. It’s not just about hitting it far, though power certainly helps. It’s about gaining strokes the moment the ball leaves the clubface. It’s about shaping shots, holding lines, and giving yourself the right angles. Players who do that well tend to keep showing up towards the top of the board. Which brings us, of course, to Rory.

If Quail Hollow had a favorite son, it might be McIlroy. He’s won here four times at the Wells Fargo Championship, finished second once, and racks up top 10s like they’re frequent flyer miles. His game and this course seem to understand each other.

And this season? The numbers make the case even louder.

He leads the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained Total. He’s number one in SG Off the Tee, launching drives with that signature blend of speed and control. He ranks third in Driving Distance, averaging 317.5 yards. That part is vintage Rory though.

But perhaps the most intriguing stat – the one that makes you raise an eyebrow and maybe pencil him in with more confidence – is that he’s also tenth in Putting. That’s the Rory combo we haven’t seen consistently in a while. And when both ends of the game are clicking, he doesn’t just contend. He tends to run away.

Now, if you’re a player looking to compete at Quail, and you know that this is a driver’s course, what do you work on? Simple. You check your numbers. You look at your SG Off the Tee. Are you gaining ground or treading water before you even hit an iron? That’s strategy.

This is where data shifts from curiosity to coaching tool. It points out where you’re strong, but more importantly, it shines a light on the blind spots. For Quail Hollow, bring your best off the tee, or bring a very good recovery game.

Take Xander Schauffele. He’s the defending PGA Champion, and his game is about as solid as it gets from tee to green. But one stat has folks doing a double take. He currently ranks 156th in SG Putting. That’s not a dealbreaker, but let’s just say it adds a little suspense to Sunday afternoons. You can win with that number, but you’ll likely have to do everything else nearly flawlessly.

Then there’s Scottie Scheffler. World number one. Number two in Total Strokes Gained. A metronome from tee to green. His putting? It’s had its moody moments, but lately, it's been trending in the right direction. If the putter shows up in Charlotte, it might be lights out.

Of course, data can’t measure nerves. It can’t tell you who’s been dialing in their bunker play in the twilight hours. It doesn’t know who feels unbeatable or who just had the best sleep of their life. But it gets you close. Close enough to trust it more often than not.

And that’s why Rory feels like such a compelling pick. The history, the stats, the rhythm of his game – it’s all aligned. The question isn’t whether he can win. It’s whether someone else can match what he’s bringing to this course.

We’ll find out soon. But if you’re paying attention, the numbers are already whispering… You just have to know how to listen.